Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.9 percent in April 2023 to 151.4 (2016=100), a reversal from the 0.1 percent decrease in March. Additionally, the LEI improved by 3.1 percent in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, faster than the 2.2 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India declined by 0.7 percent in April 2023 to 137.2 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in March. However, in the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, the CEI improved by 1.2 percent - a partial recovery from the 4.5 percent contraction in the prior six-month period between April and October of 2022.

“The India LEI increased substantially in April based on preliminary data,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Much of the improvement in April reflected positive contributions from bank credit and the Services PMI. The economic expansion should continue in 2023, but growth momentum may fade due to a weakening external economic environment and the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 5.0 percent in 2023 from 6.8 percent in 2022, with further moderation possible in 2024.”

The India LEI rose in April

Financial components were the main drivers of improvement in the India LEI

Despite recent improvement, the trajectory of the LEI has been slowing on an annual basis

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector      , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org