Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 1.3 percent in August 2022 to 153.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decrease in July. The LEI improved by 5.7 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, faster than the 4.4 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.8 percent in August 2022 to 150.1 (2016=100), following a 2.8 percent decline in July. The CEI increased by 7.7 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, a slowdown from the 8.4 percent increase in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

“The LEI for India remained on an upward trajectory in August,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the economy should continue expanding in the near-term, the pace of growth is likely to moderate into next year. High inflation, rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and recessions in several large economies create headwinds for growth in emerging economies, including India. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth will moderate to 7.4 percent in 2022 before slowing to 4.6 percent in 2023.”

The India LEI suggests the economy will continue expanding in the near term

The India LEI showed broad strength as every component except exports contributed to its growth

The trajectory of the India LEI points to continued economic growth, but the pace could decelerate

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector    , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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