Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India declined by 0.6 percent in August 2023 to 153.2 (2016=100), reversing the 0.5 percent increase in July. Nonetheless, the LEI rose by 2.3 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, faster than the 1.6 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased by 3.3 percent in August 2023 to 145.2 (2016=100), following a 2.2 percent decrease in July. The CEI improved by 5.1 percent during the six-month period from February to August 2023. A shift from the 2.9 percent contraction over the prior six-month period between August 2022 and February of 2023.

“The India LEI fell in August, marking the first decline in four months” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Although merchandise exports improved substantially, followed by much smaller gains from the yield spread and two other components, the increases were not enough to offset the large decline in credit to the commercial sector and weakening service business activity. Regardless of the most recent monthly decline, the LEI grew at a higher rate over the past six months compared to the previous six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, suggesting India’s growth should continue in 2023. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP will expand by 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.1 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI fell for the first time in four months 

Weaker business activity, REER, and a fall in the BSE index propelled August’s decline 

The India LEI, although positive year-over-year, has slowed over recent months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org