Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India rose by 0.6 percent in December 2023 to 155.5 (2016=100), following four consecutive monthly increases. As a result, the LEI rose by 1.9 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2023, smaller than the 2.8 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.8 percent in December 2023 to 140.5 (2016=100), following a slightly larger decrease of 2.5 percent the previous month. The CEI fell by 2.8 percent during the six-month period from June to December 2023, a significant decline compared to a 4.2 percent increase over the prior six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023.

“The India LEI rose in December, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Except for the exchange rate, all components of the LEI improved in the month. Recent month-over-month gains in the LEI notwithstanding, softer growth over the last six months indicates possible deceleration of the economic expansion ahead. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP to expand by 7.2 percent in 2023 but slow to 6.3 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI rose for a fifth consecutive month  in December

Most components contributed positively to the LEI in December

India’s annual LEI growth rate fell over the 2023 period

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post-benchmark revisions: 1990-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org