Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.4 percent in February 2023 to 150.8 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in January. However, the LEI improved by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, slower than the 5.2 percent rate of growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.1 percent in February 2023 to 138.8 (2016=100), following a 1.8 percent increase in January. The CEI fell by 5.8 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, nearly offsetting the 6.2 percent increase in the prior six-month period between February and August 2022.

“The LEI for India increased in February, but its growth trajectory has been slowing,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “While the economic expansion should continue in 2023, various headwinds could lead more moderate real GDP growth. Most LEI components either did not change or improved modestly in February, and only the real effective exchange rate contributed negatively to the index. Persistently high inflation, declining international demand, and recessions in developed markets pose downside risks to the Indian economy. The Conference Board has lowered its projection for year-over-year real GDP growth in 2023 to 5.0 from 5.4 percent.”

The India LEI improved in February, however growth rate has moderated

The real effective exchange rate was the only negative contributor to the LEI in February

The trajectory of the LEI points to moderating economic growth in 2023

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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