Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India rose by 1.0 percent in February 2024 to 158.0 (2016=100), marking the seventh consecutive monthly increase. As a result, the LEI rose by 3.2 percent in the six-month period from August 2023 to February 2024, after 2.8 percent over the previous six months. 

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India jumped by 3.1 percent in February 2024 to 151.0 (2016=100), following another large increase of 2.9 percent in January. Nevertheless, due to CEI declines in the second half of 2023, the index rose only by 0.1 percent during the six-month period from August 2023 to February 2024, a significant slowdown from the 8.3 percent rise over the prior six-month period.

“The LEI for India increased again in February,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Aside from PMI: Services, all components contributed to the monthly rise in the LEI, and most notably merchandise exports, cargo handled, bank credit to commercial sector, and exchange rate. Monthly, semiannual, and annual changes in the LEI have exhibited broad-based robust growth over recent months, suggesting that the strong GDP momentum observed in Q4 2023 would continue well in 2024. Accordingly, the Conference Board had just revised up its annual real GDP growth forecast for India and now projects the economy to expand by 7.1 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI continues to remain on a steely upward trend

In February, nearly all components contributed positively to the LEI

The annual growth rate of the India LEI remains strong

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/