About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:
The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for India increased by 0.5 percent in May 2023 to 151.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.5 percent in April. Additionally, the LEI improved by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, slower than the 3.0 percent growth rate over the previous six months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India improved by 4.8 percent in May 2023 to 148.2 (2016=100), following a 1.9 percent increase in April. In the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, the CEI improved by 7.9 percent - a partial recovery from the 8.2 percent contraction over the prior six-month period between May and November of 2022.
“The LEI for India improved in May based on preliminary data” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, “fueled by positive contributions from bank credit, the yield spread, cargo handled, and the Services PMI. Growth in economic activity should continue in 2023 but may fade due to a softening external environment, tempered consumer demand, and weaker investment. Becasue a better-than-expected reading for GDP growth in Q1, The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 5.8 percent in 2023, which is upwardly revised from 5.0 percent.”
The India LEI improved in May
Financial components drove improvement in the LEI for India
The trajectory of the LEI has been positive, but slowing on an annual basis
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org
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