Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India decreased by 0.1 percent in October 2022 to 152.9 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in September. The LEI improved by 2.9 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2022, slower than the 5.0 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.8 percent in October 2022 to 146.0 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in September. The CEI decreased by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2022, a sharp slowdown from the 16.7 percent increase in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022, which reflected a rapid rebound from the pandemic induced slowdown in 2021.

“The LEI for India decreased in October, amid mixed performance among its financial and non-financial components,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI for India suggests economic growth is losing momentum. Tailwinds, including expanded credit to the commercial sector and buoying consumer demand, which previously restricted the downside, may be easing. Additionally, high inflation, decreasing exports, and increasing recession risks globally will likely weigh on growth prospects in the short term. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth will slow to 4.6 percent in 2023 from 7.9 in 2022.”

The trajectory of the India LEI points to moderating economic growth

Over the last six months, improvements in financial components more than offset declines among non-financial components

The India LEI suggests the economy faces headwinds in the coming months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector         , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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