Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:00 AM ET, November 19, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.4% in October 2024 to 159.7 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in September. The LEI increased by 1.8% over the six-month period from April to October 2024, similar to the 1.9% growth between October 2023 and April 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India increased significantly by 4.8% in October 2024 to 153.4 (2016=100), after falling by 2.5% in September. The Index also rose by 0.8% over the past six-month period ending in October 2024, much slower than the 2.2% increase over the previous six months.

“The India LEI recovered in October, after 3 months of flat and slightly negative readings,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “A substantial recovery in merchandise exports was the main contributor to the index, driven by a strong performance in engineering goods, electronics, chemicals, and textiles. All other non-financial components and the yield spread also fueled the recent gain in the LEI. The annual growth rate of the Index has been moderating over the course of 2024 and continues to point towards possibly less robust economic activity through the end of the year and into early 2025. Regardless, The Conference Board continues to project India to remain the fastest growing large economy in 2024, with GDP growth reaching around 6.8% but easing to 6.2% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 13, 2024, at 9 A.M. ET.

The India LEI picked up slightly in October

All non-financial components, alongside the interest rate spread, fueled the increase of the Index

Over 2024, the India LEI’s annual growth rate moderated

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around eight months.

The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for India are:

• Interest Rate Spread
• BSE: Index: Monthly Average: SENSEX
• REER: 40 Currencies
• M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector
• Merchandise Exports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Cargo Handled
• Industrial Production: Capital Goods
• India PMI: Services Business Activity

The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Indiaare:

• Industrial Production
• Total Imports (deflated by Wholesale Price Index)
• Vehicle Sales, Passenger Vehicles

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org