Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan held steady in April 2023 at 88.5 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent increase in March. The LEI for Japan contracted by 3.3 percent in the six-month period ending in April 2023, following a 0.9 percent decline over the previous six months between April and October 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan edged down by 0.1 percent in April 2023 to 98.8 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in March. The CEI for Japan fell by 0.7 percent over the six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023, the same rate of decline as in the previous six-month period between April and October 2022.

“The LEI for Japan LEI held steady in April, but a majority of its components contributed positively,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “However, the external environment, with exports contracting for the first time since 2021, may create headwinds to Japan’s economic outlook. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth for Japan at 1.0 percent in 2023, and to decelerate to 0.8 percent in 2024.”

The LEI for Japan remained unchanged in April

The majority of LEI components were slightly positive last month

The Japan LEI annual growth rate still remains in negative territory

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org