Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, April 9, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Japan was unchanged in February 2025 at 87.0 (2016=100), after a 0.5% decrease in January (upwardly revised from -0.7%). In addition, over the six months period between August 2024 and February 2025, the LEI for Japan declined by 0.1%, an improvement from a decline of 0.8% over the previous six months between February and August 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan was also unchanged in February 2025 at 98.2 (2016=100), after 0.1% decrease in January. Overall, the CEI for Japan contracted by 0.3% over the six-month period from August 2024 to February 2025, following being unchanged over the previous six-month period (February to August 2024).

“With exactly half of the Japan LEI components positive and the other half negative, the Index was unchanged in February” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The biggest dip came from stock price index, which started to soften in February. It is worth noting that the most recent downturn of Japanese equity market due to the US tariff policy changes is not yet reflected in this release. The second most negative component was new orders for machinery and construction, after a temporary uptick in November and December. On the positive side the yield spread continued to support the Index along with growth rate of labor productivity and dwelling started. The Tankan business confidence expectations for Q2 were virtually unchanged, despite the growing concerns over US tariff policies in the export driven Japanese economy. Considering most recent trade announcements and the associated uncertainty, The Conference Board currently forecasts Japan GDP to be around 1.4% in 2025.

The next release is scheduled for Monday, May 12, 2025, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

The Japan LEI was unchanged in February

Stock prices were the biggest drag on the LEI in February

The annual growth rate of Japan’s LEI was virtually unchanged, at a negative level suggesting uncertain economic conditions ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan.
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around four months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for Japan are:
• Real Money Supply, M2 + CD Money
• Yield Spread, (10 year gov bonds minus Uncollateralized: Overnight Rate)
• Stock Price Index
• Dwelling Units Started
• Suspension of transactions
• Tankan Business Conditions, All Enterprises, All Industries
• Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity Mfg
• Real Operating Profits
• New Orders for Machinery and Construction
• Index of Overtime Worked, Mfg

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Japan are:
• Number of Employed Persons
• Industrial Production
• Wage and Salary Income
• Real Retail, Wholesale, and Manuf. Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ 

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org