Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 93.1 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent decrease in July. The LEI contracted by 0.7 percent in the six-month period ending in August 2022, after falling by 1.1 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan also improved by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 99.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in July. The CEI was unchanged over the six-month period from February to August 2022, after no change in the previous six-month period between August 2021 and February 2022.

“The Japan LEI improved slightly in August, but this wasn’t yet sufficient to reverse the downward trajectory of the index, which suggests growth prospects in Japan will continue to face headwinds in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “Most components of the Japan LEI improved in August, more than offsetting declines in overtime worked in manufacturing and real money supply. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth for Japan in 2022 at 1.7 percent in 2022, but growth is likely to slow down to 1.3 percent in 2023.”

Japan LEI improved slightly in August but short-term challenges still remain on the horizon

August improvement in the Japan LEI was driven by most components

Japan LEI annual growth remained in negative territory, but its downward trajectory eased somewhat

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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