Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Fell Slightly in December

New York, February 12, 2024…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan declined slightly by 0.2 percent in December 2023 to 88.2 (2016=100), after being unchanged in November. As a result, the LEI for Japan declined by 0.9 percent in the second half of 2023, more than reversing a 0.1 percent growth rate over the first half of 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan inched up by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 98.9 (2016=100), improving for the second consecutive month, after a 0.2 percent increase in November. Despite these recent improvements, the CEI for Japan contracted by 0.4 percent over the second half of 2023, after expanding by 0.2 percent in the first half of last year.

“The Japan LEI remained on a downward trend in December” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The December decline was fueled by weaknesses among non-financial components, especially the Index of Overtime Worked in Manufacturing and New Orders for Machinery and Construction. Nonetheless, the negative annual growth rate continued to moderate, suggesting that the headwinds to economic activity may ease in the near term. Nonetheless, the Conference Board expects Japan real GDP growth to slow to 1.4 percent in 2024 after 2.0 percent in 2023.”

The LEI for Japan declined in December

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Suspension of transactions, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org