Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.

LEI for Mexico Declined in March

Latest Press Release

Updated: Thursday, April 17, 2025

For Release 11:00 AM ET, April 17, 2025

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico declined by 1.2% in March 2025 to 116.8 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.2% in February. Overall, the LEI contracted by 2.6% over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, after contracting by 5.7% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.3% in March 2025 to 117.2 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1% in February. Overall, the CEI registered no growth over the six-month period between September 2024 and March 2025, after growing by 0.7% over the previous six-month period.

“After a momentary uptick in February, in March, the Mexico LEI reprised the downward trajectory that started in August 2024,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The March decline was primarily driven by significant negative contributions from the opinion balance for manufacturing inventories and price of oil exports. The exceptional weakness in inventories was likely related to expected impacts from US tariffs. While only non-USMCA-compliant goods are currently subject to new US tariffs, continued trade tensions with the US could further weigh on growth in the near-term. Additionally, the LEI six-month and annual growth rates remained negative and continued to signal recession risks. In line with this, The Conference Board currently forecasts that real GDP growth will slow down in Q2 and Q3 and only reach 0.6% in 2025.”

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, May 20th, 2025, at 11 A.M. ET.

The Mexico LEI decreased in March

The March drop was driven by a decline in the opinion balance for manufacturing inventories and the price of oil exports

The six-month growth rate of the LEI continued to signal recession risks

NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.

The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the six-month diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −5.0%. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.

The six components of the Leading Economic Index® for Mexico are:

• Industrial Production (Construction)
• Stock Prices
• Petroleum Exports: Crude (US$/Barrel)
• Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance)
• Federal Funds, Money Market Rate
• Real Exchange Rate

The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Mexico are:

• Industrial Production
• Retail Sales
• Employment, IMSS Beneficiaries

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org