Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan declined by 1.2 percent in January 2024 to 87.0 (2016=100), after upwardly revised 0.3 percent increase in December 2023. As a result, the LEI for Japan declined by 1.9 percent over the six-month period ending in January 2024, after growing by 0.6 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan also declined in January 2024 by 0.7 percent to 98.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in December 2023 (revised from moderate increase of 0.1 percent). The CEI for Japan contracted by 0.8 percent over the six-month period from July 2023 to January 2024, after expanding by 0.2 percent between January and July 2023.

“The Japan LEI declined substantially in January, and suggests weaker economic growth in near term,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Soft global conditions continue to weight on export driven Japanese economy, with the January decline fueled by weak New Orders for Machinery and Construction and the Index of Overtime Worked in Manufacturing. Almost all other non-financial components also contributed negatively. The long-term growth (six-month and annual) rate of LEI slipped further into negative territory, suggesting that the headwinds to economic activity will persist in the near term. After negative growth in the second half of 2023 due to sluggish corporate profits and declining households purchasing power, the Conference Board expects Japan real annual GDP growth to remain modest and reach only 1.4 percent in 2024.”

The LEI for Japan declined sharply in January

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Suspension of transactions, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org