Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.2 percent in July 2022 to 93.0 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in June. The LEI contracted by 1.2 percent in the six-month period ending in July 2022, after contracting by 2.2 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan also fell by 0.2 percent in July 2022 to 99.3 (2016=100), following a 0.9 percent increase in June. The CEI declined by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 0.7 percent decline between July 2021 and January 2022.

“The Japan LEI declined slightly in July, and still suggests slow growth in the second half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “The July decline was fueled by large negative contributions from new orders in manufacturing and housing starts, which more than offset increasing stock prices, and improvements in remaining non-financial components. While global inflation and high interest rates still pose risks to growth, pent-up demand and gradual easing of supply chain disruptions could temper the slowdown. The Conference Board upgraded slightly year-over-year real GDP growth for Japan in 2022 to 1.7 from 1.6 percent.”

Japan LEI decresed slightly in July, with short-term challenges still on the horizon

Depressed New Orders and Dwelling Units Started fueled decline in the Japan LEI

Japan LEI annual growth remains in negative territory, but showing signs of an easing slowdown

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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