Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 1.3 percent in November 2022 to 90.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decline in October. The LEI for Japan contracted by 1.8 percent in the six-month period ending in November 2022, following a 1.1 percent decline over the previous six months between November 2021 and May 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan dipped slightly by 0.1 percent in November 2022 to 99.6 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in October. The CEI for Japan improved by 0.3 percent over the six-month period from May to November 2022, after contracting by 0.8 percent in the previous six-month period between November 2021 and May 2022.

“The Japan LEI declined for the third consecutive month in November,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Large negative contributions from non-financial components, except for the Tankan Business Conditions index, more than offset positive contributions from financial components of LEI. The sluggish global economy is likely to create headwinds for the Japanese economy in the near term. The Conference Board forecast for real GDP growth for 2023 in Japan was revised down slightly to 1.7 from 1.8 and the economic growth is likely to decelerate further in 2024.”

Japan LEI continued to fall 

Declines in the LEI were fueled by non-financial components while financial components remained positive

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and pots- benchmark revisions: 1965-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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