Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Unchanged in November

New York, January 11, 2024…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan was unchanged in November 2023 at 88.4 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in October. As a result, the LEI for Japan declined by 0.8 percent in the six-month period ending in November 2023, a smaller rate of decline than the 1.3 percent contraction over the previous six months between November 2022 and May 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan improved by 0.2 percent in November 2023 to 98.8 (2016=100), offsetting a 0.2 percent decline in October. The CEI for Japan contracted by 0.4 percent over the six-month period from May to November 2023, after declining by 0.1 percent in the previous six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023.

“The Leading economic index for Japan was unchanged in November,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Positive contributions from all financial components offset negative contributions from non-financial components of the LEI, especially suspension of transactions and housing starts. The LEI has been on a downward trend since mid-2021. However, the rate of decline has moderated, suggesting economic conditions may not worsen much in the near term. The Conference Board forecast for real GDP growth for 2023 in Japan was revised up slightly to 2.0 from 1.9 percent, but economic growth in 2024 will likely slow to 1.4 percent.”

The LEI for Japan was unchanged in November

 In November, improved all financial components were offset by negative contributions from suspension of transactions and housing starts

The annual growth rate for Japan’s LEI is becoming less negative signaling fewer headwinds ahead 

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1965-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Suspension of transactions, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org