Global Leading Indicators

Note: The January 2024 release of the leading composite economic index (LEI) for Japan (data for November 2023) will incorporate suspension of transactions data published by Japanese Bankers Association (JBA) to replace business failures data, which is not available since November 2022. Our research has shown that the suspension of transactions series is highly correlated with the former series. The former business failures data will be used in the calculation of the LEI until March 2006 and will be replaced with the suspension of transactions series from April 2006 to present, based on data availability.

Additionally, annual benchmark revisions will bring both composite indexes leading and coincident up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan fell by 0.5 percent in October 2023 to 88.3 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent increase in September. As a result, the LEI for Japan declined by 0.3 percent in the six-month period ending in October 2023, following a 3.2 percent contraction over the previous six months between October 2022 and April 2023.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan also declined in October 2023 to 98.6 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in September. The CEI for Japan contracted by 0.5 percent over the six-month period from April to October 2023, after declining by 0.4 percent in the previous six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023.

“The Japan LEI fell in October, more than offsetting the previous month’s marginal gain” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weakness among financial components of the LEI fueled the decline. Although five out of ten components contributed positively to the index in the month, negative contributions from money supply, new orders for machinery and construction, and stock prices more than offset gains elsewhere. The Conference Board downgraded the year-over-year real GDP growth forecast for Japan to 1.9 percent in 2023 from 2.3 percent, and still projects further weakening of growth to 1.1 percent in 2024.”