Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 92.9 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August. The LEI for Japan contracted by 0.5 percent in the six-month period ending in September 2022, following a 0.6 percent increase over the previous six months between September 2021 and March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan declined by 0.2 percent in September 2022 to 99.6 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in August. The CEI for Japan declined by 0.2 percent over the six-month period from March to September 2022, after an increase of 0.8 percent in the previous six-month period between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The Japan LEI declined in September, reversing August gains,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Sharp declines in stock prices and housing construction drove the decline in the leading economic index in September. While economic policies could soften the impact of rising inflation and support growth, downside risks to the outlook remain in the near term. The Conference Board forecast for real GDP growth in Japan was slightly downgraded to 1.6 from 1.7 percent for 2022.”

Japan LEI declined in September 

September decline in the Japan LEI was primarily driven by financial components

Japan LEI annual growth points to a weak growth outlook

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

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About The Conference Board

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