Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased slightly by 0.2 percent in August to 105.9 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in July. However, the LEI is down by 1.0 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, following a 1.9 percent decrease over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased by 0.7 percent in August 2022 to 108.2 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent increase in July. The CEI declined by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, a reversal from a 2.9 percent growth between August 2021 and February 2022.

“The LEI for South Korea increased slightly in August amid improving stock prices and machinery orders,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, inventories, exports, and construction orders suggest the economy in South Korea continues to experience headwinds to growth. Amid tightening monetary policy and slowing exports due to COVID-related lockdowns in China, The Conference Board projects a year-over-year real GDP increase of 1.8 percent in 2023, a downgrade from the previous estimate of 2.1 percent.”

The South Korea LEI increased slightly in August, but still suggests slow economic growth in the coming months

Positive contributions from stock prices and the value of machinery orders were offset by declines in remaining components

Recent LEI trajectory points to slower growth in the year ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

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