Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea declined by 0.6 percent in August 2023 to 105.0 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.8 percent (downwardly revised) in July. As a result, the LEI fell by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, following a decrease of 1.2 percent in the time from August 2022 to February 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea improved in August 2023, with a 1.4 percent increase to 106.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.9 percent in July. However, the CEI contracted by 1.1 percent in the period between February to August 2023, after a decrease of 0.4 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea fell for a second consecutive month in August,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Most components contributed to the decline in the index, with much of the weakness concentrated in private construction orders, interest rates, and stock prices. While real GDP expanded by an average rate of 2 percent in the first half of 2023, The Conference Board expects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.3 percent for the entirety of 2023. The Bank of Korea’s hawkish monetary policy stance, aimed at curbing inflation, will most likely weigh on growth in the second half of this year.”

The South Korea LEI fell in August

The decline in the index was driven by several components in August

The annual growth rate of the LEI dove deeper into negative territory, after improving in first half of this year

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org