Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 0.4 percent in February 2023 to 106.2 (2016=100), following a large increase of 1.8 percent in January. However, the LEI is down by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, following a 0.5 percent decrease from February to August 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea was unchanged in February 2023 at 105.4 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.3 percent in January. However, the CEI declined by 2.9 percent in the six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023, much faster than the decline of just 0.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea increased again in February, suggesting economic activity may pick up in the coming months,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “After signaling an economic contraction late last year, the latest reading for the LEI in February pointed to recovery. However, the recent behavior of the index has been volatile. Nearly all components of the LEI contributed positively to the index this month, except orders for machinery and private construction. The end of zero-COVID policies and increasing demand in China may contribute positively to economic growth prospects for Korea. While real GDP growth contracted by 1.6 percent in the final quarter of 2022, The Conference Board projects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2023.”

The Korea LEI increased again in February

Four out of six components contributed positively to the LEI in February

An improving trajectory of the LEI suggests the slowdown in year-over-year real GDP growth might end soon

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

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