Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 1.7 percent in January 2023 to 105.6 (2016=100), a reversal from its 0.7 percent decline in December 2022. However, the LEI is down by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023, following a 1.9 percent decrease from January to July 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased by 1.3 percent in January 2023 to 106.4 (2016=100), following no change in December 2022. The CEI declined by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023, a reversal from 1.3 percent positive growth over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea increased sharply in January, partially offsetting several months of decline since August 2022,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “Positive contributions to the LEI were widespread throughout both financial and non-financial components this month, with the strongest positive contributions from expanding construction activity and increasing value of machinery orders. The recent downward trajectory of the LEI may be bottoming out and economic growth could resume later this year. Meanwhile, the end of zero-COVID policies in China is likely to positively affect the economic outlook in Korea. While real GDP growth fell by 1.5 percent in the final quarter of 2022, The Conference Board projects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2023.”

The Korea LEI increased sharply in January

Positive contributions were widespread throughout financial and non-financial components

Year-over-year real GDP growth for Korea continued on its downward trend, but the index may be pointing to economic recovery later this year 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/  

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