Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 1.0 percent in June 2023 to 106.0 (2016=100), following an increase of 0.1 percent in May. The LEI improved by 2.4 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a reversal of the 2.6 percent decrease from June to December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.2 percent in June 2023 to 106.5 (2016=100), following an increase of 1.4 percent in May. The CEI was unchanged in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, after a decrease of 1.0 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea increased sharply in June, partially offsetting recent decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Positive contributions to the LEI were widespread throughout both financial and non-financial components, with the strongest positive contributions from the index of inventories to shipments, exports, and stock prices. The six- and twelve-month growths of LEI continue to improve, pointing to an optimistic economic outlook ahead. While real GDP grew by 2.4 percent in Q2 2023, The Conference Board projects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2023, with further improvement in 2024.”

The South Korea LEI improved substantionally in June

The improvement was driven by a decline in the index of inventories to shipments and an increase in exports

The LEI has been less negative on an annual basis, pointing to better economic growth prospects ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/  

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org