Global Leading Indicators

 Due to a programming error, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for South Korea for May was incorrectly reported on July 8, 2022. It has been corrected and the impact on the LEI and its growth was minimal.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 106.8 ^c (2016=100), following a 0.8 ^c percent decrease in April. Moreover, the LEI decreased by 1.2 ^c percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, a larger change than the 0.7 ^c percent decrease in the preceding six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased by 0.6 percent in May 2022 to 108.5 (2016=100), following a 0.5 ^c percent increase in April. The CEI grew by 2.5 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, slightly faster than the 2.2 ^c percent increase between October 2021 and April 2022.

“The LEI for South Korea fell again in May, for the fourth time in the past six months, suggesting the economy could slow in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Tightening monetary policy amid high inflation will pose additional headwinds to economic growth in the near-term. The Conference Board projects real GDP will grow by 3.1 percent year on year in 2022, after 4.1 percent growth in 2021.”

The South Korea LEI decreased again in May, suggesting slower growth in the coming months

Negative contributions from bond yields and private construction orders drove the decrease in the LEI for South Korea 

The LEI points to slow future growth amid rising inflation and tightening monetary policy

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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