Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 104.9 (2016=100), following a decrease of 1.1 percent in April. The LEI improved by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, a partial reversal of the 3.0 percent decrease from May to November 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased 0.9 percent in May 2023 to 107.1 (2016=100), following no change in April. The CEI increased 0.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, slightly offsetting a decrease of 1.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea ticked up slightly in May,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “The improvement in the LEI was fueled by two components – a decline in the index of inventories to shipments and an increase in exports – with all other components making negative contributions to the index. Despite increases in global demand propping up manufacturing activity for South Korea in the month, weaknesses remain in indicators of both the financial and real economies, which may continue to weigh on overall growth. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth of 1.4 percent in 2023, slightly upwardly revised from previous estimate of 1.2 percent growth.”

The South Korea LEI and CEI both improved in May

The improvement was led by declining index of inventories to shipments and increasing exports

The LEI continues to be negative on annual basis, which shows that growth prospects might be fragile

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/  

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org