Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.2 percent in November to 104.0 (2016=100), following a 1.8 percent decline in October. The LEI is down by 3.4 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, following a 0.9 percent decrease over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.1 percent in November to 106.3 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in October. The CEI declined by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, a reversal from the 2.1 percent increase between November 2021 and May 202

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“The LEI for South Korea fell further in November, continuing its downward trend” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “Declining exports, slowing construction activity, and increasing inventories contributed significantly to the decline, showing that slowdowns are occurring in the real economy. As trade also continues to moderate amid weakening global demand, The Conference Board projects year-over-year GDP growth to slow to 1.7 percent in 2023.”

The Korea LEI declined again in November

Falling exports and slowing construction activity led to the dip in the LEI

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1971-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/  

About The Conference Board

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