Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 1.6 percent in November 2023 to 106.8 (2016=100), more than offsetting a decline of 0.5 in October. The LEI rose by 2.0 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, following an increase of 0.5 percent from November 2022 to May 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased by 0.6 percent in November 2023 to 107.9 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.8 percent in October. Over the period between May and November 2023, the CEI rose by 0.4 percent, less than an increase of 0.7 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The South Korea LEI increased in November after declining in the previous month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The November gain was mainly driven by positive contributions from the index of inventories to shipments and bond yields, followed by smaller positive contributions from the remaining components. However, the month-to-month volatility in the LEI indicates that mixed economic conditions in Korea introduce uncertainty for the near-term growth outlook. The Conference Board expects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.3 percent for 2023, and a forecasted rate of 1.9 percent in 2024.

The South Korea LEI Increased in November

For both the month of November and on a six-month basis, increases in the LEI were led by non-financial components

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1971-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org