Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea was unchanged in September at 105.1 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.6 percent in August. The LEI fell by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, following a decrease of 0.1 percent over September 2022 to March 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea improved again in September 2023, with a 0.3 percent increase to 108.4 (2016=100), following an increase of 1.3 percent in August. Over the period between March and September 2023, the CEI rose by 0.6 percent, after an increase of 0.2 percent over the previous six-month period.

“After two consecutive months of decline, the South Korea LEI remained unchanged in September,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The unchanged reading for the leading index was due to increases in the index of inventories to shipments and value of machinery orders but declines across the rest of the components. With uncertainty in global growth and recent data indicating mixed economic conditions in Korea, there are still headwinds to growth. Moreover, as inflation remains above target, the Bank of Korea’s hawkish monetary policy stance will continue to put downward pressure on growth going forward. The Conference Board expects year-over-year GDP growth of 1.3 percent for 2023, and a rate of 1.9 in 2024.

The South Korea LEI Remained Unchanged in September

Despite the flat September reading, the LEI continued to decrease on a six-month basis

The annual growth rate of the LEI still remains in negative territory, signaling moderation in growth ahead 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org