Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, June 17, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.3 percent in April 2024 to 120.0 (2016=100), after also decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. As a result, the LEI contracted by 0.9 percent over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, following a 2.5 percent contraction over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.3 percent in April 2024 to 117.1 (2016=100), after being unchanged in March. The CEI also increased by 0.3 percent over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, after growing at 1.8 percent over the previous six months.

“The Mexico LEI decreased again, marking the third consecutive month of declines,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Despite positive contributions from most of the components, a large negative contribution from the opinion balance for manufacturing inventories and the fall in stock prices pushed the Index down in April. Declines in the monthly readings paired with negative six-month and annual growth rates, suggest persisting headwinds to economic activity. However, since Banco de Mexico has just started to cut rates, there is ample room for more monetary support to the economy if needed. In addition, the incoming Mexican administration will enjoy a strong majority in Congress that should facilitate fiscal actions. Overall, the Conference Board expects annual real GDP growth at 2.1 percent in 2024 despite modest growth in the first quarter of the year.”

The Mexico LEI decreased in April

The decline in the opinion balance for manufacturing inventories led the LEI’s decline

The negative annual growth rate of the LEI continues topoint to headwinds in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org