Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.5 percent in April 2022 to 110.3 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.0 percent in March 2022. The LEI grew by 1.2 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in April 2022 to 108.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.5 percent in March 2022. The CEI grew by 2.5 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

“In April, the partial reversal of the large March gain in the Mexico LEI suggests risks to the economic growth outlook remain in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “As a result of high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and slower overall growth in the US and globally, The Conference Board projects slower economic growth of about 1.7 percent year over year for Mexico in 2022 and 0.9 percent in 2023.”

Mexico LEI decreased in April, mainly due to declining stock prices and manufacturing inventories

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI points to increasing risks to the economic outlook, primarily due to monetary policy tightening

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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