Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in February 2022 to 109.5 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in January. However, the LEI declined by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in February 2022 to 107.4 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

“Despite the sizable increase in the LEI in February, the trajectory of the Mexico LEI over the last six months suggests slower economic growth in the near-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s month-over-month rise reflected positive oil and stock price contributions that more than offset negative contributions from the other components. While the global economic effects of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices all pose headwinds to overall global growth, rising oil prices could help offset some of the challenges ahead for the Mexican economy.”

 Mexico LEI increased in February, but the recent gains do not reflect the likely headwinds from the war in Ukraine

The Mexico LEI points to slower economic growth in 2022 which may be further challenged by the war in Ukraine

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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