Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, March 22, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 121.7 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.2 percent in December 2023. Nevertheless, the LEI contracted by 2.2 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a much larger contraction than the 0.7 percent decline over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico was unchanged and remained at 116.9 (2016=100) in January 2024. Moreover, the CEI slowed to a 0.5 percent growth rate over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, after growing at 2.2 percent over the previous six months.

“The Mexico LEI continued to recover in January,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “January’s gain can be attributed to the pick-up in industrial production in construction and the appreciating Peso against US dollar. Because of several months of decline in the second half of last year, the annual growth of the LEI remains negative and signals persisting headwinds to growth. The Conference Board currently forecasts weak growth in the first quarter of 2024 followed by a rebound later in the year. Annual real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.3 percent for 2024.”

The Mexico LEI continued to recover in January

The upturn in construction industrial production and the appreciating Peso drove the recovery in the LEI in January

The annual growth rate of the LEI is still negative, suggesting  persisting headwinds to economic activity

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org