Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 111.1 (2016=100), after improving by (upwardly revised) 0.2 percent in June. The LEI fell by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, a similar decline rate of 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico rose by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 113.2 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.4 percent in June. The CEI grew by 2.2 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, a faster rate than 1.3 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

“The Mexico LEI increased for a third consecutive month in July” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Despite a large negative contribution from manufacturing inventories, the reading was offset by a stronger peso versus the US dollar, increased industrial production in construction, and higher prices for oil. Slowly decelerating global growth has not negatively impacted growth prospects for Mexico. For these reasons, The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth for Mexico at 3.3 percent in 2023, slightly revised upward from 3.0 percent, previously reported.

After revisions, the Mexico LEI has shown slight increases since May 2023 

Despite an outsized decline in manufacturing inventories most contributions were positive in July

Mexico LEI growth has been less negative, suggesting fewer headwinds ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org