Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, May 20, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.2 percent in March 2024 to 120.2 (2016=100), after a sharp decrease of 1.1 percent in February. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.8 percent over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, following a 1.5 percent contraction over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico remained unchanged at 116.8 (2016=100) in March 2024, after being also unchanged in February. The CEI increased by a meek 0.1 percent over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, after growing at 2.0 percent over the previous six months.

“The Mexico LEI decreased in March,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The decline is the result of a very weak opinion balance for manufacturing inventories. All other components contributed positively. Both on a six-month and annual basis, the growth of the LEI remained negative and signaled persisting headwinds to economic growth in the near-term. The Conference Board currently expects real GDP growth to slow to 2.2 percent for 2024 after 3.2 percent in 2023.”

The Mexico LEI decreased in March

The decline in the opinion balance for manufacturing inventories drove the March decrease in the LEI

The negative annual growth rate of the LEI suggests  headwinds to economic growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org