Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.7 percent in March 2023 to 109.8 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in February. The LEI fell by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, much slower than the 4.4 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in March 2023 to 111.7 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.5 percent in February. The CEI grew by 1.6 percent in the six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023, slightly slower than the 1.8 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Mexico fell again in March, continuing its downward trend,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst at The Conference Board. “The decline was led by falling manufacturing orders, low oil prices, and increasing interest rates. The recent movements in the LEI still suggest that the future growth trajectory is uncertain. A potential recession in the US may weigh on growth for Mexico in the coming months. The Conference Board projects a year-over-year GDP growth rate of 2.4 percent in 2023, down from 3.1 percent in 2022.”

The Mexico LEI fell again in March signaling declines in economic activity

The decline was led by non-financial components including manufacturing orders and oil prices  

Mexico LEI growth remained negative while real GDP growth stayed positive

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org