Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico fell by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 109.4 (2016=100), following another decline of 0.4 percent in April. The LEI fell by 1.9 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, a slower rate than the 2.4 percent decline over the previous six-month period from May to October 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico rose by 0.4 percent in May 2023 to 112.2 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in April. The CEI grew by 1.8 percent in the six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023, a tad faster than the increase of 1.2 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Mexico fell slightly again in May,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst at The Conference Board. “The decline was led by falling manufacturing inventories, oil prices, and stock prices. Above-target inflation, along with high interest rates and weakening demand in the US, may continue to weigh on growth for Mexico. For these reasons, The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP to slow to 2.6 percent in 2023 from 3.0 percent in 2022, with further weakness in 2024.”

The Mexico LEI continued on its downward trajectory in May

Both financial and non-financial components contributed to the decline in May

Mexico LEI growth remained negative, continuing to signal a future slowdown

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org