Global Leading Indicators

Note: The January 2024 release updates the calculation of contribution to the Mexico LEI for the following component: Net Insufficient Inventory 1990-2017 and its replacement series Manufacturing Inventories, Opinion Balance 2017- current. This methodology change is consistent with the approach for other LEIs. Contributions of both the discontinued component and the new component are now calculated in normalized levels. The change in methodology does not impact the cyclical characteristics of the LEI.

Additionally, annual benchmark revisions bring both composite indexes leading and coincident up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico remained unchanged in November 2023 at 121.3 (2016=100), following three months of declines. As a result, the LEI fell by 2.3 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2023, a larger contraction than the 1.0 percent decrease over the previous six-month period from November 2022 to May 2023.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico ticked up by 0.1 percent in November 2023 to 117.0 (2016=100), after a slight increase of 0.2 in October. The CEI grew by 1.5 percent over the six-month period from May to November 2023, following an increase of 1.9 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The Mexico LEI remained unchanged,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “All of the LEI’s components were negative or flat, except for positive contributions from stock prices and the Peso/US exchange rate. Manufacturing inventories continued to be the most significant driver of weakness in the LEI over the last six months. Given the sluggish performance of the Mexico LEI, the possibility of weaker economic growth in the months ahead is mounting. The Conference Board expects year-over-year real GDP growth for Mexico to have expanded by 3.2 percent in 2023, and projects substantial softening to only 1.3 percent growth in 2024.”

The Mexico LEI remained unchanged in November while the CEI continues to rise steadily

Although the Peso/US exchange rates was stronger, remaining non-financial components contributed negatively in November

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1980-present

Note: The 2024 post-benchmark LEI encompasses the methodology change and does not impact the cyclical characteristics of the LEI.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

 The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org