Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 108.9 (2016=100), after declining by 1.2 percent in September. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, following a decrease of 0.2 percent over the previous six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.2 percent in October 2023 to 113.9 (2016=100), after no change in September (downwardly revised). The CEI also grew by 1.9 percent over the six-month period from April to October 2023, a faster rate than the 1.5 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“The Mexico LEI fell for the third consecutive month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “All of the LEI’s components were negative or flat, except for the increase in the construction component of industrial production. Manufacturing inventories continued to be the most significant driver of weakness in the LEI, not only in October, but also over the last six months. There may be headwinds ahead as there is anticipated weaker growth in the US and globally which could weigh on Mexico’s external sectors. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth for the Mexico of 3.3 percent in 2023, with moderation to 2.0 percent in 2024.”

The Mexico LEI fell again in October while the CEI continued to rise steadily

All components but the construction component of industrial production contributed negatively, leading to the decline in the LEI in October

The annual growth rate for the LEI was more negative, suggesting moderation in economic activity ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org