Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2022 to 105.6 (2016=100), following a 1.0 percent decline in August. The LEI contracted by 4.6 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, a reversal from the 1.2 percent growth in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.2 percent again in September 2022 to 109.9 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in August. The CEI grew by 1.8 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, slower than the 2.0 percent improvement over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Mexico fell again in September – its sixth consecutive monthly decline,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst at The Conference Board. “The weaknesses in the leading indicators were widespread with most components contributing negatively, except for the real exchange rate and construction activity. Slowing global growth and a possible recession in the US may push Mexico into a recession in the coming months. The Conference Board projects economic growth will stall in the final quarter of the year and is unlikely to pick up again until the second half of 2023.”

The Mexico LEI fell for the sixth consecutive month in September 

Negative contributions from most LEI components led the decline

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI suggests heightened risk of recession in the coming months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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