Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain decreased by 0.1 percent in July 2022 to 97.7 (2016=100), after declining by 1.2 percent in June. The LEI decreased by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from January 2021 to July 2022, after increasing by 0.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain decreased by 0.1 percent in July 2022 to 108.9 (2016=100), after rising by 0.5 percent in June. The CEI grew by 1.9 percent in the six-month period between January 2021 and July 2022, slower than the 2.7 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“With the continued decline in July, the LEI for Spain points to slower economic growth in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director for Economics at The Conference Board. “While recent economic growth has been supported by improving tourism and services activity, high inflation, rising interest rates, and slower growth throughout Europe suggest risks of an economic downturn in Spain may be increasing. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth in Spain will slow from 4.5 percent in 2022 to 0.8 percent in 2023.”

The Spain LEI declined slightlyin July, reflecting high inflation and headwinds to the growth outlook

The decline in non-financial components offset gains in financial components of the LEI

Declining growth in the LEI suggests recession risks persist 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey , and Job Placement.

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