Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain declined by 1.2 percent in September 2022 to 96.1 (2016=100), after declining by 0.4 percent in August. The LEI decreased by 3.4 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, after decreasing by 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain increased by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 109.5 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.4 percent in August. The CEI grew by 2.1 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2022, after growing at the same rate over the previous six-month period.

“The Spain LEI has been on a declining trend since the end of last year, suggesting the economy is likely to lose growth momentum in the months ahead,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “High inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a projected Euro Area recession around the beginning of 2023 point to rising recession risks. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth in Spain to stagnate in Q4 ‘22 and Q1 ’23, before picking up slightly later in the year.”

The Spain LEI has been worsening in recent months, pointing to slower growth ahead

Weaknesses in both financial and non-financial components contributed to the LEI’s continued decline

Downward trajectory of the LEI points to recession risks in the near term 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey , and Job Placement.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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