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The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
LEI for South Korea Inched Up in September
Latest Press Release
Updated: Thursday, November 7, 2024
For Release 10:30 AM ET, November 7, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for South Korea slightly increased by 0.2% to 109.0 (2016=100) in September 2024, after also increasing 0.2% in August. Over the six-month period between March and September 2024, the LEI increased by 1.4%, a slightly slower pace than the 1.8% increase, over the previous six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for South Korea ticked up by 0.1% to 108.1 (2016=100) in September 2024 after a significant 1.0% gain in August. As a result, the CEI expanded by 1.5% over the six-month period between March and September 2024, more than reversing the 1.0% contraction over the previous six-month period.
“The South Korea LEI increased in September,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Despite weakness in four of the six LEI underlying components, improvements in exports (3-month moving average) and the inventory-to-shipment index more than offset other negative contributions. The semiannual and annual growth rates remained positive, even if down slightly, still suggesting a positive economic outlook for Korea. Moreover, following the Q3 GDP growth turning positive, and though not yet reflected in the LEI, effects of the October rate cut and slowing inflation, may further support growth as the year ends and into 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Friday, December 6, 2024, at 10:30 A.M. ET.
The South Korea LEI inched up in September
September’s gain was led by improvements in exports and the inventories-to-shipment ratio
The South Korea LEI continued to indicate positive growth
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for South Korea
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around three months.
The six components of the Leading Economic Index® for South Korea are:
- Stock Prices
- Yield of Government Public Bonds
- Real Exports FOB (3-month moving average)
- Value of Machinery Orders
- Index of Inventories to Shipments
- Private Construction Orders
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for South Korea are:
- Industrial Production
- Wholesale and Retail Sales
- Total Employment
- Monthly Cash Earnings
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
