As the war in Ukraine continues, insights from The Conference Board shed light on what the latest developments mean for the state and trajectory of the economy and business environment. Media can access the daily commentary and analysis here.

In addition, thought leaders of The Conference Board are available for comment. See below for a sample of recent thought leadership:

The Economy

Article: Oil Reaching $200 per Barrel? It’s Not Out of the Question
The prospect of Brent crude oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. What could cause such a spike, and what are the implications? As detailed by economists Erik Lundh and Gurleen Chadha, major disruptions to Russia’s oil production and exports could cause prices to hit this exorbitant level, even if other countries try to step in to help mitigate the shortage. Among the economic implications: expect widespread inflation and slower economic growth around the world. Global CPI inflation in 2022 could rise an additional 0.9 points over our base case scenario to 6.1 percent year-over-year.

Article: Consumer Confidence Increased Slightly in the US
Consumer confidence increased slightly in March, after a decrease in February. What’s more, 57 percent of consumers said jobs were plentiful, marking a new historical high. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—improved. However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined.

Article: Consumer Confidence Plummets in Europe
Consumer confidence in the Euro Area plummeted in March. The monthly decline in confidence was similar to the drop recorded in April 2020, when European economies were shut down in response to the pandemic. Does this mean that the economy will plummet along with confidence? It’s too early to tell, say Marketing & Communications Center Leader Ivan Pollard and Economist Klaas de Vries. While it is certainly not a positive signal, it should be assessed in conjunction with other indicators that point to some strength on the consumer spending side, including a tight labor market and healthy household balance sheets.

Public Policy

Policy Brief: Which Countries are Sanctioning Russia? The List to Date
Starting immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States, its partners, and allies have adopted some of the strongest sanctions levied against any country, particularly one with the size of the Russian economy. As detailed in a new Policy Brief by the Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board (CED), over 40 nations, accounting for half of the world’s GDP, are participating in sanctions targeted on Russia. But, significantly, two very large global economies—China and India—are not participating in the sanctions regime and are abstaining from votes in the UN critical of Russia.

Podcast: Will Russia Go Nuclear?
"It really is an extremely dangerous time in terms of security—our security, European security, and global security,” warns Dr. Lori Esposito Murray, President of the Committee for Economic Development, the public policy center of The Conference Board. In this episode of CEO Perspectives, Murray sits down with President and CEO Steve Odland. Murray—a renowned expert in foreign policy and international security—offers a frank assessment of the latest developments in Ukraine and details the threats by Russia to use nuclear and chemical weapons.

 Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG)

Article: Corporate Citizenship During a Geopolitical Crisis: Refugees
Roughly four million Ukrainians—overwhelmingly women and children—have been forced to flee their homes because of the Russian invasion. In the third part of The Conference Board series on corporate citizenship during this crisis, ESG Center Executive Director Paul Washington and Institute Leader Jeff Hoffman analyze the implications and steps companies can take.

Article: Cutting Ties with Russia (Part 2): A Guide on Disclosure and Communications
The corporate reaction to the invasion of Ukraine has been swift and unprecedented. Still, companies need to follow established—and robust—processes to comply with SEC disclosure requirements, along with their firm’s own communications policy to describe the actions they’ve taken, explains Robert Lamm, Fellow at the ESG Center.

Human Capital

Webcast: Leading Through Turbulent Times: Savvy Leaders and The Human Connection
In this upcoming webcast, Professor David Clutterbuck, Distinguished Principal Research Fellow at The Conference Board, will offer practical steps that organizations can take to help their leaders effectively navigate this environment. Attendees will also see a case study featuring Tetra Pak, showing how the multinational food packaging and processing company changed its leadership model and how the pandemic tested its leadership values.

Article: Employee Views on Corporate Responses to the War in Ukraine
The Conference Board Human Capital Center fielded a survey to better understand what organizations are doing to support employees as a result of the war in Ukraine. Over a third (39 percent) of the more than 1,300 respondents were unaware of any actions their organization has taken. The most common actions cited by respondents whose organizations did take steps to support impacted employees and contractors were relocating workers and/or families to safer areas and assisting with costs; closing offices, operations, plants, or stores to keep employees safe; setting up employee hotlines/emergency communication systems; and maintaining contact through HR, where cell phone coverage was still possible.

Marketing & Communications

Article: Being a Global Brand at a Time of Global Unrest
These are difficult times for brands to navigate. What’s more, they face a long road of uncertainty ahead. Although there is no proven formula for the right answer in such situations, Ivan Pollard, Leader of the Marketing and Communications Center, outlines two critical factors to consider: 1)?focus on the people, not on the politics; and 2) balance your short-term obligations with long-term implications.?Your company will feel pressure to act now, but leaders must try and project forward to imagine how their current actions and words will affect their longer-term business trajectory.

Article: Six Steps to Guiding Corporate Reputation While Responding to the Ukraine Crisis
Apart from implementing sanctions imposed by their governments, companies must decide whether and how to take a stand on the current Russia-Ukraine crisis in words and deeds. Any action—or inaction—can impact corporate reputation, emphasizes Denise Dahlhoff, Senior Researcher at the Marketing & Communications Center. How do consumers generally respond to these forms of corporate activism? And what should companies consider when making decisions like these, with long-term implications for their corporate reputation?

Media Contacts
Katie.Puello@tcb.org
Joseph.DiBlasi@tcb.org