Confidence Deteriorates Amongst China-based CEOs
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International CEO Confidence

Confidence Deteriorates Amongst China-based CEOs

17 December 2024 / Report

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Insights for What’s Ahead

  • Confidence among China-based CEOs has deteriorated, with the latest Measure of CEO Confidence™ for China dropping below the 50-point threshold to a score of 49. A score below 50 indicates more negative than positive responses.
  • More than 40% of CEOs say current business conditions in China are worse than six months ago, while 38% say they are the same.
  • But there are signs of improvement when compared to pre-COVID conditions. While 53% of CEOs still report below-pre-COVID demand levels, this is a significant improvement compared to the 61% and 71% reported in H1 2024 and H2 2023.
  • CEOs remain cautiously optimistic about the economy’s six month outlook, but are more pessimistic about the outlook for their own industries and their own company performance metrics, including decreases in sales, profits, investment, and headcount.
  • Behind the downward pressures on profits that companies are facing, most CEOs say customers are becoming extremely price sensitive and seeking steep discounts or just holding off on purchasing.
  • Compounding the situation are the actions of local competitors, with 56% of CEOs noting that local competitors are less risk-averse and more agile in dealing with market changes, and are offering comparable or superior products at much lower prices.
  • However, more than half of CEOs noted that the profits generated in China remain higher than those of other regions, implying that China continues being an important source of growth for their companies against the backdrop of global economic weakness. 
  • Navigating geopolitical challenges is having a significant impact on MNC businesses in China, with almost 80% of CEOs saying that managing geopolitical issues is impacting costs and efficiency, and 38% reporting that geopolitical tensions are deteriorating their alignment with global HQs.
  • Looking ahead, CEOs express a markedly more optimistic view regarding China’s long-term prospects i.e. five years from now. Almost two-thirds (65%) expect Chinese demand to be at least above the global average and 32% expect it to be on par with other major markets.

Insights for What’s Ahead

  • Confidence among China-based CEOs has deteriorated, with the latest Measure of CEO Confidence™ for China dropping below the 50-point threshold to a score of 49. A score below 50 indicates more negative than positive responses.
  • More than 40% of CEOs say current business conditions in China are worse than six months ago, while 38% say they are the same.
  • But there are signs of improvement when compared to pre-COVID conditions. While 53% of CEOs still report below-pre-COVID demand levels, this is a significant improvement compared to the 61% and 71% reported in H1 2024 and H2 2023.
  • CEOs remain cautiously optimistic about the economy’s six month outlook, but are more pessimistic about the outlook for their own industries and their own company performance metrics, including decreases in sales, profits, investment, and headcount.
  • Behind the downward pressures on profits that companies are facing, most CEOs say customers are becoming extremely price sensitive and seeking steep discounts or just holding off on purchasing.
  • Compounding the situation are the actions of local competitors, with 56% of CEOs noting that local competitors are less risk-averse and more agile in dealing with market changes, and are offering comparable or superior products at much lower prices.
  • However, more than half of CEOs noted that the profits generated in China remain higher than those of other regions, implying that China continues being an important source of growth for their companies against the backdrop of global economic weakness. 
  • Navigating geopolitical challenges is having a significant impact on MNC businesses in China, with almost 80% of CEOs saying that managing geopolitical issues is impacting costs and efficiency, and 38% reporting that geopolitical tensions are deteriorating their alignment with global HQs.
  • Looking ahead, CEOs express a markedly more optimistic view regarding China’s long-term prospects i.e. five years from now. Almost two-thirds (65%) expect Chinese demand to be at least above the global average and 32% expect it to be on par with other major markets.
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Author

Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Alfredo Montufar-Helu Alfredo Montufar-Helu

Head of the China Center
The Conference Board

Read Bio

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