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Navigating the Economic Storm

How high will unemployment go? The US unemployment rate forecast

14 November 2022 / Chart

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While a US recession appears to be imminent, it will not look like any other in recent history. The robust labor market seen in 2022 will be impacted next year, but not by much. In our view, five key factors will be at play.

  1. The coming recession will be relatively short.
  2. Employers may try to hold on to workers in a very tight labor market.
  3. Understaffing is already common.
  4. Workers who lose their job, or current job seekers, may stop actively looking for work and drop out of the labor force.
  5. Demographic factors are constraining labor supply.

For more information about our labor market forecast please see our website.

While a US recession appears to be imminent, it will not look like any other in recent history. The robust labor market seen in 2022 will be impacted next year, but not by much. In our view, five key factors will be at play.

  1. The coming recession will be relatively short.
  2. Employers may try to hold on to workers in a very tight labor market.
  3. Understaffing is already common.
  4. Workers who lose their job, or current job seekers, may stop actively looking for work and drop out of the labor force.
  5. Demographic factors are constraining labor supply.

For more information about our labor market forecast please see our website.
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Author

Erik Lundh

Erik Lundh Erik Lundh

Senior Economist, Global
The Conference Board

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