Policy Backgrounders

Iran's Proxies

January 25, 2024

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™:

The strikes by the US and United Kingdom (three joint strikes and five independent strikes by the US to January 24) on targets in Yemen in response to repeated Houthi attacks on commercial shipping highlight the activities of Iran’s proxies and how Iran has sought to influence political and military outcomes in the Middle East both directly and through proxies for many years. Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, this effort has been renewed in earnest. Proxies aligned with Iran in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and particularly in Yemen—the “Axis of Resistance”—have taken repeated military actions against Israel and Western interests, notably shipping in the Red Sea, leading to the Western military response.

• The military strikes on targets in Yemen are an escalation of the conflict in the region.  While both Israel and the US have responded to provocations from the Iranian proxies throughout the region with select, targeted military action, the strikes in Yemen had been actions the US had been actively avoiding.
• Most analysts continue to believe that Iran does not want full-scale war with Israel or the West but instead seeks to show support for Hamas in Gaza and tie down Israeli forces on multiple fronts. However, concern has grown over a broader conflict, particularly involving Lebanon, either by design or miscalculation. Iran also struck a target in Pakistan against what it termed a “an Iranian terrorist group,” which Pakistan termed an “illegal” attack.” Pakistan responded with a similar attack in Iran.
• The potential for expanded conflict in the Red Sea had already increased significantly: Iran has sent a warship, although of very limited capacity, to the Red Sea in a sign of Iran’s interest in projecting power in the region and support for the Houthis in Yemen.