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Ukraine's Offensive into Kursk

September 05, 2024

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™

One month after Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, the attack has helped change the dynamics of the war. It carries risks, but it also permits Ukraine to change the narrative of the war, from being constantly on the defensive to making a major counteroffensive push during the summer fighting season and boosting Ukrainian morale and Western perceptions of the war.

  • Ukraine currently controls up to 1,294 square kilometers of Russian territory. It does not intend to keep this permanently but instead to use it as a military “buffer zone” and a bargaining chip to convince Russia to end the war and to exchange prisoners (very important for Ukraine).
  • The invasion has also had an impact in Russia itself, highlighting the use of conscript troops and Russian weakness in sectors beyond the immediate frontline. At the same time, however, Russia is also continuing advances in eastern Ukraine, though slowly and at great cost.
  • The changed circumstances raise the likelihood of eventual peace talks, in which countries including China and India could play a significant role.

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Authors

David K. Young

David K. Young

President

Read BioDavid K. Young

John Gardner

John Gardner

Vice President, Public Policy

Read BioJohn Gardner

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