Policy Backgrounders

US Spring Plantings Respond to Tariffs and Geopolitical Risk

April 09, 2025

The USDA shows that farmers plan to plant far more corn than expected while planting near record low wheat. Retaliatory tariffs on crops and the decline of US food aid are worrying US producers as talks arise of a possible aid package. On the global front, food security remains vulnerable to weather and geopolitical uncertainty. 

• Corn acreage for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres (ma), approximately a million acres above trade’s average estimate. All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 ma, over a million acres below the average trade expectation.
• Global corn stockpiles are projected to hit a decade low this year, giving US producers the opportunity to replenish global inventories and reach new buyers. Reduced wheat production could mean that the US’ largest buyers – Mexico, Philippines, and Japan – may find other markets, possibly leading to long-term impact.
• Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is impacting producers. On Friday, China imposed reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the US. The new tariffs come on top of earlier tariffs imposed by China, hitting US farmers with levies of 15% on chicken, wheat, and corn, and 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, and fruit.
• The US and Russia agreed last month to a Black Sea cease-fire with Russia and Ukraine “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.” The deal has not yet been implemented.

US Farmers to Plant More Corn Acres, Less Soybean, Wheat, and Cotton

The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released two major reports last week. The annual Prospective Plantings report relies on survey data from producers to provide official estimates of US farmers’ planting intentions for the year. The survey asks producers to indicate the principal crops they intend to plant in the current year and their acreage, as well as the previous year’s harvest. The quarterly Grain Stocks report contains estimates of stocks for wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, and mustard seed nationally, by state, and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage), collected from two separate surveys that are sent to commercial grain storage operations.

Corn Acreage Predicted to Rise

Corn acreage for all purposes in 2025 is estimated at 95.3 million acres (ma), up 4.73 ma, or 5%, from 2024. This follows last year’s decrease of 4.61 ma, or 5%, in corn acreage from the year prior. Compared to 2024, this year’s planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 40 of the 48 estimated states. States with planting estimates of at least 120% of the acreage of the previous year include Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Utah, with Mississippi expecting the largest increase at an additional 200,000 acres (a 141% increase).

The 95.3 ma figure is approximately a million acres above trade’s average estimate. However, some were expecting an even higher number. “There have been whispers that managed money traders were anticipating a number in the upper 95s or even 96-million-acre range for corn,” said Ben Brown, an extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. “Those whispers pushed new corn down 9 cents per bushel last week . . . . It is still a relatively large corn acreage number.”

Corn is a more profitable crop for farmers than wheat, an important consideration as crop prices weaken. Increased demand for livestock feed, which comprises 40% of total domestic use, as well as fuel ethanol makes it a smart investment. With global corn stockpiles projected to hit a decade low this year, strong US production can replenish global inventories and reach new buyers.

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 8.15 billion bushels (bb), down 2% from the year prior. On-farm corn stocks stood at 4.50 bb, down 11% from the year prior, and off-farm stocks, at 3.65 bb, are up 12% from a year ago. The December 2024 – February 2025 indicated disappearance is 3.92 bb, up from 3.82 billion bushels during the same period last year, as US corn exports remain strong, having reached their highest level at the end of 2024 in roughly six years. US export sales reporting as of February 27 shows total commitments for 2024/25 at 5.0 million tons (mt), up from 3.6 mt the year prior. Mexico remains the top destination for US corn exports as the country continues to struggle with drought conditions.

Farmers to Plant Nearly Record-Low Wheat

All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.4 ma, down 2% from 2024. If realized, this figure represents the second lowest all-wheat planted area since record-keeping began in 1919. Winter wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 33.3 ma, down 2% from the previous year. Of this figure, approximately 23.6 ma are Hard Red Winter, 6.09 ma are Soft Red Winter, and 3.66 ma are White Winter. Estimated planted area for spring wheat is 10.0 ma, down 6% from the 2024 estimate, with 9.40 ma of Hard Red Spring wheat and 2.02 ma for Durham. If realized, California and Virginia will have record low planted areas.

The wheat prospective plantings figure of 45.4 ma stood over a million acres below the average trade expectation. “Both soybeans and wheat were reported lower than expected. This comes as no surprise, as these markets have not been able to hold any length, and profitability on farms for these crops looks slim, if not negative,” said Jeremy McCann, Account Manager at Farmer’s Keeper. Reduced wheat production could mean that the US’ largest buyers – Mexico, Philippines, and Japan – may find other markets, possibly leading to long-term impact.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2025 totaled 1.24 bb, up 14% from the year prior. On-farm stocks are estimated at 307 million bushels (mb), up 13% from a year ago, and off-farm stocks are estimated at 930 mb, up 14% from a year ago. The largest regional inventory was held in the hard red winter states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas.

US Wheat Production and Exports

According to USDA’s March 2025 Wheat Outlook, US wheat supply for MY 2024/25 stands at 2,808 mb, up 296 mb. The US export forecast is 835 mb, up 18% from the 52-year low in 2023/24. The 2024/25 all-wheat season-average farm price was lowered $0.05 per bushel to $5.50 per bushel, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year, down from $6.96 this month last year.

Retaliatory Tariffs Drive Uncertainty for Farmers

The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is impacting the agricultural sector. On Friday, China imposed reciprocal 34% tariffs on all imports from the US from April 10. The new tariffs come on top of other tariffs imposed by China that went into effect last month, hitting US farmers with levies of 15% on chicken, wheat, and corn, and 10% on soybeans, pork, beef, and fruit. “[S]ome of those producers are thinking, ‘Well, should I be planting as many soybeans as normal if we’re potentially going to be losing some of that demand?'” said Naomi Blohm, Senior Market Advisor at Total Farm Marketing. However, many farmers do not have the privilege of such flexibility. Associate Professor Aleks Schaefer at Oklahoma State University said that the climate and soil in his state dictate what farmers can grow. “If I’m a farmer in Oklahoma, I don’t have the choice, really, between wheat – which I might export – versus apples – which I would want to sell domestically,” he said. Soybean futures dropped significantly last Wednesday after the President announced the Administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

At least half of soybean and sorghum crops are exported. and China has long been the biggest buyer, though it is reportedly considering restricting US exports. A major long-term fear is that American farmers and ranchers will lose market share as China turns to Brazil and other countries for these crops. Another crop especially vulnerable to tariffs is California almonds; the state produces 80% of the world’s supply. The California Almond Alliance told Secretary Brooke Rollins and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a letter that retaliatory tariffs would hurt American profits and cede more market share to competitors such as Australia.

Sharp declines in US food aid also weigh on the market. The US provided $4.5 billion of the $9.8 billion for the World Food Programme in 2024; the Administration is now canceling some projects despite the exemption from cuts for “humanitarian life-saving programs.” USAID provided another $1.8 billion through the Food for Peace program, much purchased in the US, plus additional support for food security and nutrition programs. USAID’s Office of the Inspector General reported that almost $489 million in food aid has been stalled because of confusion over guidance on the programs. USDA provides additional support.

The Administration is already discussing potential aid for farmers. “We are setting up the infrastructure that if, in fact, we have some economic consequences in the short term to our farmers and perhaps our ranchers, that we will have programs in place to solve for that,” said Agriculture Secretary Rollins. Senator John Hoeven (R-ND) confirmed discussions of a farm bailout. Retaliatory tariffs in 2018 and 2019 under the first Trump Administration caused an estimated reduction of more than $27 billion in losses in US agricultural exports, with the largest decline to China, according to USDA; farmers received $23 billion in aid to offset losses.

Global Wheat Production and Harvest        

According to USDA’s March 2025 World Agricultural Production report, global wheat production for MY 2024/25 is projected at 797.23 million metric tons (mmt), up 0.76% from last year. Global wheat yielded is projected at 3.59 metric tons per hectare (t/ha), up 1.13% from last year. Total harvested area is projected at 222.32 million hectares (mha), down 0.27% from last year.

Russia’s Statistical Agency, Rosstat, released its final data for all major crops harvested in 2024.^[1] Russian wheat production for MY 2024/25 is projected at 81.60 mmt, down 10.82% from last year and down 2% from the five-year average. Total wheat yield is estimated at 2.94 t/ha, down 7.26% from last year and nearly consistent with the five-year average. Total harvested area stands at an estimated 27.80 mha, down 3.75% from last year and down 2% from the five-year average. According to railway infrastructure operator Rusagrotans, Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports are expected to total 40.5 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from its prior forecast. Only 1.95 MMT of wheat was exported by Russia in February, the lowest level for the month in five years. The company noted that replacing “missing” exports from Russia “will be challenging for the global market over the next four months.”

Ukraine’s wheat production for MY 2024/25 is estimated at 23.40 mmt, up 1.74% from last year and down 11% from the five-year average. Total wheat yield is estimated at 4.50 t/ha, a decrease of 1.96% from last year but up 8% from the five-year average. Total harvested area stands at 5.20 mha, up 3.79% from last year and down 18% from the five-year average. Ukraine’s wheat exports remain strong this season. From July to March in MY 2024/25, Ukraine shipped nearly 13 MMT of wheat, just slightly down from 13.9 MMT a year earlier. Spain remains Ukraine’s largest wheat purchaser at 3.1 MMT, reduced from 4.4 MMT the year prior largely due to Spain’s higher production last year.

Reduction of Ukrainian exports to Europe and Turkey has been replaced by increases to Asia and North Africa made possible by the Black Sea export corridor. Egypt strengthened its position as a key buyer, importing 1.54 MMT of Ukrainian wheat as of April 2, up from 1.22 MMT last year. Following talks in Riyadh, the US and Russia agreed a Black Sea cease-fire deal “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea [.]” In return, the US would help “restore” Russia’s access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower expensive maritime insurance costs, and increase access to ports “and payment systems for such transactions.” Moscow’s primary demand is lifting sanctions on Rosselkhozbank, Russia’s state-owned agricultural bank, and reconnecting financial institutions involved in agriculture to the Brussels-based SWIFT payment system. Russia says doing so would help its food and fertilizer exports, although fertilizer exports are booming, largely from increased sales to Europe.

Australia’s wheat production increased to the third highest on record, estimated at 34.11 MMT for MY 2024/25, up from 25.96 MMT the previous year, an increase of 31.39% and up 14% from the five-year average. Total wheat yield is estimated at 2.61 t/ha, up 24.29% from last year and up 8% from the five-year average. Total harvested area stands at 13.06 mha, up 5.58% from last year and up 8% from the five-year average. Yields were better than expected particularly in Western Australia and New South Wales, which comprises over 60 percent of total production. New South Wales experienced favorable soil moisture at the start of the season, with Western Australia having a dry start followed by improved rainfall during the growing season which provided favorable conditions during the critical grain fill period, boosting yields.

Food Prices Remain Key Determinant of Global Food Security

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 127.1 points in February 2025, up 2.0 points (1.6 percent) from its revised January level. The increase was driven largely by the price for sugar which increased 6.6% month-on-month due to concerns over tighter global supplies for the 2024/25 season, partly because of unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil.

While world food prices have declined from their 2022 peaks, price dynamics will remain a key determinant of food security. In 2022, the World Bank found that a 1% increase in global food prices pushes an additional 10 million people into extreme poverty, underscoring the vulnerability of low-income populations to market fluctuations.